A pull rate is the probability of pulling a particular card or a particular rarity from a booster pack. The term is widely used by collectors who want to understand how hard a card is to get through packs. Publishers do not normally state the figures, so it is the collectors themselves who estimate them.
Where the figures come from
Most pull-rate figures are estimates based on many collectors opening a large number of packs or boxes and counting what they get. Such samples can be large, but they are rarely independently verified. Publishers have only to a limited degree disclosed how packs are assembled, and have never guaranteed any particular distribution. When you see a figure, you should therefore ask where it comes from and how many packs it is based on.
Why figures can differ
- Packs are filled by machines according to rules unknown to collectors, so randomness and structure are mixed.
- Different products, such as a booster box and single packs, can have different composition.
- Samples are small compared with what has been printed and are often prone to sampling error.
- Rules change between sets and eras, and new rarity tiers such as Illustration Rare can shift the distribution.
What a figure can and cannot say
A low pull rate for a secret rare can explain why the card is hard to get, but the figure alone decides neither price nor demand. The same rarity tier, shown by the rarity symbol, can contain cards of very different popularity. A pull rate also says nothing about how many cards exist in total; for that you need print figures, which are rarely public (see print runs).
A caveat
Since the figures are estimates, they should be treated as a rough guide and not as an answer. See also chase cards for how pull rates relate to the cards collectors hunt for.
In summary
Pull rate is a useful term, but the figures behind it are estimates. Remember that small samples can produce large swings, that publishers do not confirm the figures, and that pack construction can change between sets. Use pull rate to understand that rare cards are rare rather than to calculate precise probabilities. The difference between how often a card is pulled and how many were printed is worth holding on to.
Last reviewed October 25, 2026. This article explains how the market works. It is not advice to buy or sell anything in particular.